Don’t get cocky, GOP
Larry Sabato, a prominent political scientist, is flatly predicting the GOP will take the House and probably take or tie the Senate in mid-term elections this November. Sabato, apparently, has a good track record for predictions. Such a landslide for the GOP invariably conjures memories of 1994, the last time the United State surged toward the Republicans.
I’d just like to point out a couple of differences between 1994 and 2010.
In 1994, nobody — and I mean nobody — saw the landslide coming. I remember political pundits and newscasters stunned with disbelief as the results drifted in from across the country that Tuesday night. Given the widespread expectations of a Democratic drubbing, this November differs greatly from its 1994 counterpart.
Another difference is that the GOP in 1994 were offering voters a clear alternative to the ruling party. Their 10-part “Contract with America” offered a palpable idea of exactly how the party planned to rule differently from the Democrats. I’ve yet to see any clear, coherent message that details how the Republicans plan to lead if they do take control of Congress in November. The GOP still appear rudderless — despite perfect conditions for a cogent message of austerity and limited government to emerge. Instead, the GOP are simply enjoying the fruits of a bad economy and the anti-incumbency fever it carries. A couple of positive economic reports before the election could easily sway the public back into the Democrats’ camp.
So, my warning to the GOP is one I’ve heard before, but that tends to get lost amid Republican euphoria — “Don’t get cocky, kid.”
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Memories fade (mine did), but the Contract wasn’t unveiled until mid-September 1994. Consider, too, how comparatively slow and limited the GOP’s promotional channels were sixteen years ago. So while Republicans haven’t a lot of time left to consolidate their message, they’re not behind schedule, either.
It would be unwise to make many promises. For instance, a small majority in both the House and Senate does not mean that Obamacare will be repealed. Obama will still have veto power. About all it can really mean is that the Republicans will have an opportunity to characterize Obama and the minority party as obstructionists, and you can see how much good that approach is doing the Democrats.
The Contract with America was only put out 6 weeks before the election in 1994(we’re at 8 weeks)… and 20% of the voters had even heard of it.
I’ve yet to see any clear, coherent message that details how the Republicans plan to lead if they do take control of Congress in November. The GOP still appear rudderless — despite perfect conditions for a cogent message of austerity and limited government to emerge.
That’s because there are many people out there who don’t want/care a clear and cogent message – they want new jobs to come out of nowhere and they want these new jobs to pay their bills, mortgages etc
The modern day GOP is no different from the Democrat party in any meaningful way – sure, they make the right noises… but they are simply playing to the Tea Party galleries…
How many Republicans joined Paul Ryan in his efforts to lay out a road map that tackles the entitlement crisis ahead ?
Also Americans on the whole may have become more European than ever when it comes to the role of Government….. sure the Tea Party folks say that they are against Big Govt but how many of them would like social security/medicare reform that significantly cuts benefits ?
It does not really matter who wins this Fall…… most people in this country are not conservative – otherwise they would’nt have sat silently and watched the triumph of liberalism for the last 5 decades.
Good luck USA – you needs lots of it.
In ’94, voters still trusted their Repub party. Now, voters are FULLY aware that Repubs are part of the PROBLEM. The party may be rudderless, but the people know the course they want to see steered by the GOP and will respond with OUTRAGE if it is otherwise. In that sense, looking for a traditional leadership message from one or two visionaries is just pointless. Not to mention, the GOP will prosper at the polls in spite of itself, of its genuine revulsion at the conservative wave and its determination to RESIST that wave.
Voters have made up their minds that a third party is out of the question. This is, if need, be, a hostile takeover of the GOP. Resistance is futile. assimilate.
I still agree with your overall point though.
There are further differences. in 1994 the Democrats were arrogant and corrupt, while the Republicans were viewed as coming to the country’s rescue with conservative ideas. This time around, the Dem’s are still arrogant and corrupt, but so too are the Republicans, at least as recently as 4 years ago. The Democrats did not “take” the congress back in 2006 so much as Republican voters just didnt show up to support incumbents. in 2010 it is more of an anti-incumbent vote than an anti-Democrat vote, as seen by the number of Republicans losing their primaries. All the Republican voters realize now that this is going to be a multiple electoral cycle revolution to flush out the rinos and pretend conservatives (Lindsay Graham call your office).
If the tea party could have the effect on the democrat party ,by giving blue dogs a support system, it could be a viable third party existing in symbiosis with the two dominant parties, and still successfully achieving its agenda.
Remember in 1994 that the Democrats had held control of the House for decades created an unbelievable pig sty of corruption (e.g., post office scandal).
It’s simply not true that “nobody — I mean nobody” anticipated a GOP wave in the 1994 midterms. News stories and political analyses were filled with just such anticipation beginning in the summer of 1994 and polls reported widely showed a trend favorable to the GOP. It may well be that some TV anchors expressed surprise at the extent of the GOP wave — but so what?
That being said, it’s still good advice not to get cocky.
Guns had a lot to do with 1984. The RKBA novement had been highly energized, in reaction to the so-called “Assault” Weapons” “Ban.” BJ Clinton was quite clear about this. The Republicans are making a big mistake if they ignore gun rights in 2010.
Very true. There is a “voter friction” now that did not exist in 1994: voters know the GOP has hacks like dennis hastert, and there is a slowness to assume that the GOP can or will fix things. Hence a slowness to assume that voting will matter, and a paralysis of part of the voter base that used to vote GOP in times like this. Voters aren’t at all sure what the GOP would do: so many may stay home, disgusted with all parties.
Repeal Obamacare. Cut spending and entitlements. Cultivate a positive business/investment environment. Protect our borders. Stand by our allies.
Is this so hard?
“If the tea party could have the effect on the democrat party ,by giving blue dogs a support system, it could be a viable third party existing in symbiosis with the two dominant parties, and still successfully achieving its agenda.”
I think the idea of the TP supporting the Blue Dogs is pie in the sky — unfortunately. The BD’s, if they win, will have to throw their support behind Pelosi — the cause of their electoral problems — out of party obligation. (Same goes for TP Republicans who will vote in establishment GOP leaders who lost them the majority before.) The DNC “machine” has a win win this time. If they retain control (unlikely) they will still loose seats, mostly held by their fiscally conservative heretics. If they lose, while it will suck for them, they get to go back to being petulant children lashing out at a (slightly more) fiscally responsible party for not buying them a pony every day of the week.
(For the record, I feel a grudging need to back my own blue dog partially because she voted against Obama Care and Cap-n-Tax. But more importantly, her challenger is a lightweight form the state legislature who, like many of her state GOP colleagues, couldn’t be bothered read a resolution calling for the teaching of astrology, yes, astrology, in science classes. As a state. we were laughed at even in Forbes and even by AGW skeptics. My blue dog, while not ideal, has proven herself fit to serve. Her challenger has proven that she isn’t fit to serve even at the state level. I want Pelosi out of work though I will likely have to settle for her not being house speaker. But I don’t want to strengthen her exile as a member of the minority by swapping competent blue dogs for incompetent boobs.)
What new ideas do people want? There are no new ideas. You either have more/bigger government, higher taxes and (to an extent) more services. Or you have less/smaller government, lower taxes and (usually) fewer services. There are some academic arguments that add a little granularity (e.g., can lower taxes increase revenue through growth?) but not much. There is no “third way.” Politicians will inevitably fall somewhere along this spectrum.
If the Republicans take over, hopefully they will ignore the media (who will treat the status quo as the centrist position, rather than as radical, as it should be treated) and stand their ground on the right side.
In 1994, nobody — and I mean nobody — saw the landslide coming.
That might not have been the case, at least not as much, had today’s Internet been in place.
Duffy:
I think your wrong on this one. I remember Newt Gingrich was a featured guest on the ABC Sunday news talk show (I forget the name, but it was hosted by ABC’s then senior White House reporter Sam Donaldson. George Stephanopoulous has the job now) It was a Sunday in mid-October and Gingrich confidently predicted a sweep of both chambers with a majority of 76 seats in the house. Later in the program the talking heads would “round table” over the top stories. Seated would be Donaldson, regulars Cokie Roberts (geez, what a stupid name to use professionally) and George Will, and a guest “head” or two. I remember Donaldson roundly disparaging Gingrich’s prediction in his most cocksure and patronizing manner. Donaldson admitted that the GOP might take the Senate, because that chamber is staffed with Washington elites as a rule, but they would never get the House in decades because America’s working men and women are reliably Democratic and wouldn’t stand for such nonsense as a Republican dominated Congress. (Between takes Donaldson slept in a box like Count Dracula, and thus wouldn’t know a piece of the real world if it fell on him)
Will thought this comment was asinine at best and unbecoming of a credentialed journalist working for ABC, and said so, in an understated and obtuse way of course, so that Donaldson, the poor lummox, didn’t even realize his credibility had been trashed on live television. After the GOP did in fact take the Congress as predicted (I believe Gingrich’s numbers were dead on) Will never missed an opportunity to rub Donaldson’s nose in it. I used to love watching old Hatchet-Faced Sam’s jaw muscles flex and grind as Will twisted the knife.
I go with Neal Scroggs on this one. It was generally expected throughout the country in 1994 that the Republicans would capture both houses of the congress; in fact, I recall vaguely a couple of occasions in the autumn of 1994 when the House Republicans announced that they would oppose some (minor) bill coming through the House on the ground that it would soon be under their control and so the bill was “premature”. Everyone knows that parties that win the presidency in one year usually lose seats during the midterms, so some Republican gain was seen as almost automatic; moreover, southern states had picked up about a dozen new seats in the house in the redistricting of 1990, and these were considered likely to go Republican (six, for example, were in Oklahoma, Texas, and Florida alone, and did go Republican), while several safe Democratic districts ceased to exist. The famed “Contract with America” was presented only after the Republicans did the math and felt sure they would win.
I don’t think that the Republicans will need to lay out much of a program; they need merely point out that they are out of power, so all they can do is say “yes” or “no” to Democratic programs. Running as a loyal opposition is enough if the party in power appears too radical, and the Democrats certainly qualify for that; moreover, the Democrats are already beginning to accuse Republicans of trying to destroy social security, so they certainly believe scare tactics alone can turn the tide.
Finally, the Republicans managed to win in 1994 despite the fact that the Bush I recession was over and the economy was clearly improving under Clinton. Right now millions of swing voters have become familiar with the terms “double dip” and “jobless recovery”; they’re likely to associate such terms with the Democrats, and not with approval.
Thanks to everyone for their comments. I appreciate them all. And thanks to Glenn Reynolds, as well, for my Instalanche.
That’s a good point about the 8 week time frame — so, we’ve got two weeks for the GOP to come up with something. Does anyone expect that they will?
As for the assertion that no one expected it — I could go back and check the NY Times to see what their final poll story said, but I don’t really have the inclination. My memory (which could be wrong) is of newscasters and pundits who took on an exasperated — almost incredulous — tone as the night wore on.
I definitely agree that they can’t just be “not the other guy” or against obummer…the republicans are coming out with a set of policies and promises (i.e. balanced budget amendment). I don’t know the details but it is supposed to be released on either the 14th or 15th of this month!!
I almost forgot…the plan that Paul Ryan has come up with is part of it according to Michael Steele. A few other points that were mentioned are cutting spending (the obvious one), secure borders, repeal and replace obamacare, extend all the bush tax cuts and even though there is no set policy on how to tackle entitlements, getting them to address those issues is at least a step in the right direction!!
…and it’s Sept. 21. Have the Republicans come up with a plan yet?
Are those crickets I hear?