Wow. A pretty gloomy assessment of the looming economic troubles:
The U.S. will experience its most severe recession since World War II, much worse and longer and deeper than even the 1974-1975 and 1980-1982 recessions. The recession will continue until at least the end of 2009 for a cumulative gross domestic product drop of over 4%; the unemployment rate will likely reach 9%. The U.S. consumer is shopped-out, saving less and debt-burdened: This will be the worst consumer recession in decades.”
Apocalyptic predictions are a dime a dozen. But they tend to be right every once in a while, just like a broken clock.
That said, I’m expecting this downturn to last a while — I think our current situation is untenable: An enormous government debt with no politicians admitting that there’s no money left to spend, a nation of maxed-out consumer creditors, and business institutions (like the Big 3 automakers) that really need to fail, not get a bailout.
Should be an interesting ride over the next couple of years.